Wednesday, August 22, 2012

A Curious Georgia Poll

Georgia is not a state that has been polled much this election cycle. Unlike its neighbors to the north and south, North Carolina and Florida, its allegiances are not really in question. Since Bill Clinton won the peach state in 1992, Georgia has been safe Republican territory. The general consensus is that Mitt Romney will have no trouble winning Georgia this year.

I also accept the reality that my state has strong conservative leanings. But every now and then there are hints that Georgia may not be as safe as people think. This week 20/20 Insight, a polling company,  released a poll showing Romney only leading Obama by 3 points, within the margin of error.

Now, in 2008 Obama only lost the state by 5 points, but that was during a very strong year for Democrats. Most agree that this election will be much closer, forcing states like Georgia back to safe Republican territory.

It remains to be seen whether Obama will hold onto the crucial TI vote this time around

Is this poll junk? It could be, as many polls are, especially since the few other Georgia polls floating around show Romney leading by 7 to 9 points. But there's also the possibility that 2008 represented a small realignment in the Georgia vote. To further examine this, let's take a look at the ol' electoral map.

courtesy NYT.com
The map to the left shows the 2008 Presidential election results. Obama does best in Atlanta and the surrounding urban counties like Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton. He also wins the smaller cities like Savannah and Augusta, as well as several rural counties in the black belt (more on this fascinating region later). McCain cleans up in the Atlanta suburbs and other rural regions. All in all, McCain wins 52 to 47.






courtesy AJC.com

             To the right is the 2008 swing map. Counties in blue voted more Democratic than they did in 2004. Counties in Red voted more Republican.  Most of the state experienced a blue shift, typical of the large Democratic swing nationwide. Appalachian North Georgia swung to McCain- again, typical of Obama's trouble connecting with voters in that region of the country. The strongest Obama shift, however, takes place in several suburban Atlanta counties. The counties to the south and east of Atlanta swung especially strongly to Obama. This includes Gwinnett, the second largest county in the state. In 2004, George Bush received 66 percent of the vote in Gwinnett. Four years later, McCain only managed 54 percent.


I have a sneaking suspicion that the swing we saw in this region of Georgia could be more permanent than ephemeral. The reason? Demographics. The minority population in Metro Atlanta is exploding. In the past decade, African Americans, Hispanics, Asians and other minorities have moved to the state in droves, changing Georgia dramatically. According to the Census Bureau Georgia is now only 55 percent non Hispanic white. Minorities are a much larger percentage of the population here than they were only 5 years ago. 

The African American population has grown tremendously in the south metro region, in counties like Henry, Rockdale and Newton. Gwinnett county, once known as a lily white suburban community, is now a majority-minority county. Whites represent only 43 percent of the population there and no race or ethnicity holds a majority. More diversity often heralds political changes, which is the main reason I expect these suburbs to continue to swing toward the Democrats. 

Will it be enough to swing the state to Obama? Not a chance. Republicans still win about 75 percent of white Georgians and this will offset any minority votes. It's a sad picture, but racial politics are alive and well in my fair state. Still, if current trends continue, look for Georgia to be up for grabs in future elections.

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