Don't Trust Your Gut

 

As I was thumbing through all things political tonight online, I ran across a blog post titled 101 reasons - Obama in 2012 will not be reelected. You see, I try to divide my time between wonky political blogs, news sites and average everyday blogs like this one. However, I must admit, this post goes FAR past the third category. It's "average" all right- in that it lacks any semblance of critical thinking or impartiality. The author rustles up 101 sure fire reasons why President Obama won't win this year. There are quite a few gems.

#6. Obama looks exhausted. As a leader he physically looks like life is a chore. He looks too skinny and will lose some votes based on his look. I know it is superficial but people vote on this.

#22.  2012 is the apocalypse?

#58.  Many people I personally know that crossed lines have told me it was a mistake.

#77.  Vegas and psychics and predictors of the sort are edging towards a Republican win.

         (Vegas has spoken. Sorry, Barack, nothing can be done)

#85.  Is Obama Keynesian or Kenyan? To date there is still some confusion in some people’s minds.

#101.  I will not vote for him and I usually vote for winners (not always). I have an even better track record with predicting elections. Sometimes I am a sucker for lost causes.

Obama read this and immediately congratulated Mitt Romney on his victory

As absurd as this blog post is, it's symbolic of a larger problem Americans face when analyzing elections, especially close elections. We trust our gut. This is probably the worst mistake we can make. As humans, we naturally are inclined to assume that most people think the way we do and have the same values. In the world of politics, I believe this is a huge mistake. However good our intentions may be, one person will never have their finger on the true pulse of America.

Like the esteemed author said, "I usually vote for winners." Well yeah, has anyone ever headed to to the polls planning to vote for the loser? (Herman Cain doesn't count) The fact is, we are a deeply polarized set of people, especially when it comes to politics. Our political beliefs are often hammered into us at an early age and we spend the rest of our lives associating with like minded people who further affirm these views for us. It's no wonder there are no swing voters left.

So, conservatives, I beg of you, please don't immediately trust your gut. I know you never supported Obama. I know you've focused solely on the negative aspects of his four years in office. What's more, I know that most of your friends and family feel the same way you do. It's easy to rely on your personal experience to predict an Obama loss. But if you're not careful, your political wisdom will be your downfall. Just look at Glenn Beck's electoral map prediction for this year's election:

R0mN3Y LaND5LiD3 YALL! Thx gL3NN!!! (This is real.)

As certain as you are that most of America feels the way you do, it's simply not the case. There are just as many folks out there who subscribe to different ideals and philosophies, and they may even have you beat. Obama has lead Romney in the polls for almost all of the campaign.

My advice to you is this: First of all, look at the polls everyday. You'll find some you like and some you don't. And if you're used to watching Fox News, why not switch the TV over to MSNBC for a few minutes? Rachel Maddow won't bite.  If you visit Drudge Report online, head on over to Huffington Post. (your kitten videos will still be on Youtube when you're done)  In the end,  it will give you a clearer picture of the closely contested race this one has turned out to be.

And after you do that, give your liberal friend a call - I know you have at least one. Let them tell you about how ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE they were that the fascist George Bush would be thoroughly creamed by the level headed, intelligent John Kerry in 2004. Because, after all, everyone they knew hated Bush!